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Centre for Transnational Crimes & Strategic Threats

Advancing strategic thinking on transnational crimes and strategic threats — analysing cross-border illicit networks, emergent asymmetric threats, and the criminal economies that undermine regional security.

ABOUT THE CENTER

The Centre for Transnational Crimes and Strategic Threats at HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies focuses on advancing strategic thinking on transnational crime and emerging security threats in the Horn of Africa. It conducts multidisciplinary research on cross-border illicit networks and asymmetric challenges shaping the region’s security landscape. Through its work, the Centre contributes to strengthening responses to transnational threats by producing high-quality research and policy-relevant recommendations. Its outputs include bulletins, policy briefs, and books, alongside the convening of workshops, seminars, conferences, roundtable discussions, and consultative forums. The Centre also serves as a platform for in-house expertise, bringing together scholars and practitioners working on transnational crime and strategic threats in the region.

The Horn of Africa’s vast ungoverned spaces, porous borders, and overlapping conflict zones have made it one of the world’s most active corridors for transnational criminal activity, from the illicit flow of small arms and light weapons that sustain non-state armed groups, to human trafficking networks exploiting migration routes through Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Somalia toward the Gulf states. The Centre examines these interconnected illicit economies, recognising that criminal networks and armed groups frequently operate in symbiosis, undermining state authority and regional security alike. The Horn Institute’s Western Indian Ocean Program further extends this lens to maritime threats, including illegal fishing and the security of Blue Economy resources.

STRATEGIC CONTEXT

Porous borders, vast ungoverned spaces, and rapid technological adoption have catalyzed the growth of sophisticated transnational criminal enterprises. These networks not only drain national economies but frequently synergize with terrorist organizations and armed rebellions.

EXPANDED RESEARCH DOMAINS

Illicit Economies and Smuggling Networks

Tracking human trafficking, as well as the smuggling of contraband, narcotics, and natural resources (e.g., gold, charcoal)

Cyber Warfare and Information Disorder

Analyzing the weaponization of social media, state-sponsored disinformation campaigns, and vulnerabilities in national cyber infrastructure.

Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW)

Mapping the illicit supply chains that arm non-state actors across the region, enabled by the porous borders and chronic instability that characterize the Horn of Africa

Maritime Piracy and Blue Economy Threats

Addressing illegal fishing, toxic waste dumping, and the resurgence of piracy threats

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH & POLICY IMPACT

he Center publishes research through bulletins, policy briefs, and books; and holds workshops, seminars, conferences, roundtable discussions, and consultative meetings. Through the Western Indian Ocean Program, the Center provides direct analytical and policy support to maritime security stakeholders and law enforcement agencies across the region.

FEATURED ANALYSIS

PUBLICATIONS FROM THIS CENTER

Authors: Hamadi I. Boga, Halimu S. Shauri, Hassan A. Mwakimako, Mohammed S. Mraja, Stephen O. Akoth

Radicalization into Violent Extremism in Coastal Kenya: Genesis, Impact and Responses

Authors: Mustafa Yusuf Ali, Mumo Nzau, Hassan Khannenje

The Changing Dynamics of Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Policy and Practice

Authors: Mustafa Yusuf Ali, Mumo Nzau, Hassan Khannenje

The Changing Dynamics of Terrorism and Violent Extremism: An Analysis

Authors: Mustafa Y. Ali, Ph.D.

The Globalization of Terrorism: From Sicariis, Assassins to ISIS