for transit and access. The article concludes that Ethiopia and Eritrea can transform their zero-sum rivalry into a win–win partnership through joint corridor diplomacy and cooperative sovereignty mechanisms anchored in international law and regional integration frameworks. Introduction The Horn of Africa remains one of the most complex and strategically contested regions in the world, shaped by overlapping historical grievances, ethno-political
fragmentation, and regional rivalries. Within this volatile environment, the Ethiopia–Eritrea relationship occupies a pivotal role in determining regional peace and stability. The political transition in Ethiopia in 2018 created unprecedented opportunities for regional stability and renewed dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s diplomatic outreach quickly engaged Eritrean leadership and signaled a departure from the entrenched hostility that had dominated bilateral relations for decades. For President Isaias Afwerki, the change in Ethiopia represented the decline of TPLF influence and the emergence of a new leadership in Addis Ababa that Eritrea could trust. This political shift was perceived as a validation of Eritrea’s long-standing position that the TPLF had dominated Ethiopian politics to its detriment, and it opened the door for constructive engagement (Bereketeab, 2019). Eritrea, which shares a 1,030-kilometer border with Ethiopia, had gained independence in 1993 after decades of struggle against Ethiopian rule. Between 1998 and 2000, the two countries fought a brutal border war that left tens of thousands dead and many more displaced.
Following the cessation of hostilities, relations were defined by a “no war, no peace” status quo, characterized by deep mistrust and minimal cooperation.
The 2018 rapprochement marked a historic change in this dynamic. Ethiopia, focused on consolidating domestic political transitions and preventing further unrest, offered an opportunity for Eritrea to emerge from relative isolation. The strategic importance of Eritrea’s Red Sea ports, particularly during regional conflicts such as the war in Yemen, further enhanced the incentive for engagement (Vertin, 2019). Symbolic gestures during this period reinforced Ethiopia’s recognition of Eritrean sovereignty. President Afwerki’s visits to Addis Ababa and other Ethiopian regions, including Sidama (Hawasa city) and Amhara (Bahir Dare city), along with the presentation of a camel and commemoration of Nakfa, underscored the acknowledgment of Eritrea’s independence and territorial integrity. Ethiopia’s acceptance of the 2002 boundary decision by an independent commission further strengthened optimism for the resolution of a historically intractable border dispute (Stigant & Phelan),2019; Keane, 2018). The Jeddah Agreement formalized the cessation of hostilities, establishing a framework for cooperation in trade, security, investment, and cultural exchange, and granting Ethiopia access to the Eritrean ports of Assab and Massawa (Otieno, 2018). However, sustaining this peace required effective institutionalization, which proved challenging given the structural and administrative asymmetries between the two states. Ethiopia’s well-established bureaucratic structures contrasted sharply with Eritrea’s highly centralized governance, in which decision-making remained largely at the discretion of President Afwerki. These structural differences posed significant hurdles in translating agreements into practical, long-term cooperation. This article analysis is guided by two central research questions and it adopts Mahdi’s (2021) Security and Foreign Policy of Landlocked States framework to interpret Ethiopia–Eritrea dynamics not merely as a bilateral political issue but as a manifestation of the broader strategic dilemmas of landlocked states.
What historical, political, and structural factors have shaped the Ethiopia–Eritrea relationship from conflict to recent rapprochement? This question directs attention to the interplay of domestic political conditions, leadership decisions, and the legacy of past conflicts in determining the bilateral
dynamic.
What challenges and opportunities exist for institutionalizing sustainable peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea in the current geopolitical context of the Horn of Africa? Theoretical Framework: Security and Foreign Policy of Landlocked States Mahdi’s (2021) framework on the security and foreign policy
of landlocked States provides an analytical foundation for understanding Ethiopia’s foreign policy dilemmas after losing its coastline. The theory posits that landlocked states are characterized by three structural conditions: (1) geographical vulnerability due to dependence on transit neighbors; (2) strategic adaptation through multivector diplomacy and economic diversification; and (3) 3 disputes over sovereignty and identity, left deep scars and entrenched a ‘no war, no peace’ status quo for nearly two decades. Domestically, diversionary politics in both states fueled escalation: Ethiopia’s fragile ethnic federal system under the TPLF-dominated EPRDF created legitimacy deficits, while Eritrea’s leadership used the conflict to consolidate power (Butcher & Maru, 2018). Structurally, Ethiopia’s sudden loss of coastline transformed maritime access into a securitized national concern which left the country to structural vulnerability. The Ethiopia–Eritrea border war is one of the deadliest inter-state conflicts in modern African history. Its escalation can be traced to structural opportunities and constraints arising from partial democratization in both countries following the overthrow of the Derg regime.
In Figure 1: Map of Eritrea and Ethiopia showing the border between the two countries in the northern Tigray region (Sources: ACCORD/Berita Musau)
the pursuit of regional interdependence as a pathway to mitigate insecurity. Case studies such as Switzerland, Botswana, Armenia, and Afghanistan illustrate diverse strategies in balancing these constraints. Switzerland’s neutrality and strong institutions enabled it to transcend geographical limitations, whereas Botswana leveraged high-value, low-volume exports to avoid overdependence on transit routes. In contrast, Afghanistan and Armenia demonstrate how domestic instability and nationalist narratives can exacerbate vulnerability and isolation. Historical Roots of the Ethiopia–Eritrea
Conflict Eritrea’s secession from Ethiopia in 1993 ended decades of armed struggle but created a new geopolitical reality for Addis Ababa. The 1998–2000 border war, rooted in
