Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland – Interests, Prospects and Risks for the Horn of Africa.

Background The Horn of Africa and Red Sea region has become a critical geopolitical arena shaped by intensifying great-power and middle-power competition and rivalry, maritime insecurity, and protracted conflicts. Within this context, Somaliland occupies a unique position. Following the collapse of Somalia’s central government and widespread violence in 1991, Somaliland declared its independence on 18 May 1991. Over the past three decades, Somaliland has maintained relative peace and political stability, established functioning democratic institutions, conducted multiple competitive elections, and developed key state attributes, including its own currency, security forces, and administrative systems. Despite these achievements, Somaliland has remained internationally unrecognized, largely due to regional sensitivities surrounding Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as the African Union’s commitment to inherited colonial borders. However, on December 26, 2025, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state. This landmark decision marks a potential turning point in Somaliland’s international status while raising profound legal, political, and security questions for Somalia, the Horn of Africa, and the wider Red Sea region. The HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies will hold a webinar to provide a platform for policy, strategic and security dialogue on the question of Somaliland’s recognition by Israel.