Horn Webinar : Geopolitical Escalations Across the Horn of Africa, Gulf and the Indian Ocean

1.Background and Context A complex interplay of middle-power rivalries and great-power contestation with real implications for regional security, global stability, and the world economy, are driving up tensions in the Horn of Africa, the Gulf and the Indian Ocean region. The geopolitical rivarly and competition between the UAE–Israel axis and Saudi Arabia-Turkey-Egypt which has expanded its footprint through investments, port developments, security cooperation, and diplomatic initiatives (including Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland), is seen as risking the territorial integrity and political stability of proxy theatres: Somalia, Yemen, Libya and Sudan. Overlaying these regional dynamics is the escalating great-power competition that now extends into the Indian Ocean. US–Iran tensions have drawn in China, Russia, and the BRICS confraternity, as US military build-up surges in the Gulf and at its Diego Garcia base on Chagos Island. The US has since rejected UK efforts to revert Chagos Island to Mauritius.