This edition of the HORN Bulletin presents four incisive articles that examine the shifting security landscape, governance deficits, and geopolitical fault lines shaping the Horn of Africa and its broader neighbourhood. From the strategic fallout of the Iran conflict to Sudan’s deepening humanitarian catastrophe, the issue brings together rigorous analysis of the forces redefining peace and stability in the region.
The first article, “The War in Iran: Lessons for African States Hosting Foreign Military Bases,” by Edmond Pamba, uses the eruption of Operation Epic Fury — the joint US–Israel campaign against Iran launched in February 2026 — as a lens through which to interrogate Africa’s exposure to foreign military basing arrangements. Tracing Iran’s retaliatory strikes across nine Gulf host states, the article draws a direct parallel to African nations such as Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, and Eritrea, whose base-hosting arrangements carry comparable structural risks with far fewer defensive safeguards. The author advances a four-pillar framework for renegotiated base agreements — anchored in comprehensive security guarantees, meaningful consultation rights, codified strategic autonomy, and the primacy of regional stability — and argues that the current moment of geopolitical flux presents a rare and time-limited window for African states to assert their interests.
The second article, “Stopping the Bleeding in Sudan: The Strategic Value of Localized Ceasefires in a Fragmented Conflict,” by Dr. Mutasim A. Ali, confronts the urgency of civilian protection in Sudan’s fourth year of devastating war. With over 150,000 lives lost and nine million people displaced, the author argues that the focus must shift from comprehensive peace negotiations — which require conditions that do not yet exist — toward localized ceasefires that can reduce immediate violence and build trust. Drawing on the traditional Sudanese Judiya conflict-resolution mechanism and international precedents, the article makes the case that community-driven, geographically bounded ceasefires, when backed by robust international enforcement, offer the most viable pathway to protecting civilians while broader peace efforts continue.
The third article, “Military Technological Evolution: How Drones are Redefining Conflicts in the Horn of Africa,” by Bravin Onditi, maps the rapid proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles across the region through four interlocking case studies — the Tigray war in Ethiopia, the al-Shabaab campaign in Somalia, the eastern DRC conflict, and Sudan’s civil war. The article documents a troubling pattern common to each context: external suppliers reshaping local balances of power, systematic undercounting of civilian casualties, the absence of accountability mechanisms, and drone campaigns that alter battlefield dynamics without delivering political resolution. It concludes with an urgent call for regional governance frameworks to match the pace of technological proliferation.
The fourth article, “Sudan, the Red Sea, and Gulf Rivalries: How Regional Competition is Reshaping Security and Governance in the Horn of Africa,” by Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, examines how competing Gulf state strategies — pursued by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar — are functioning not merely as external pressures on Sudan’s conflict but as constitutive drivers of fragmented sovereignty, hybrid governance, and self-sustaining war economies. Grounded in regional security complex theory, the article traces how Gulf patronage reinforces armed factions, fuels gold smuggling networks, and generates spillover effects across the Horn from Chad and South Sudan to Ethiopia and Eritrea. It concludes with targeted policy recommendations centred on multilateral Red Sea governance, transparent foreign investment oversight, and alignment of all external engagement with African Union-led peace processes.
