Ethiopian Prime Minister and the 2019 Nobel Peace Laureate, Abiy Ahmed Ali, has been promoting the choose-peace-shun-war culture and lifestyle in Ethiopia and greater Horn of Africa region since he assumed power in April 2018. This is being done, he has said, through the “historical investments in peace” that his government has made since his appointment. These include the freeing of all political prisoners and the subsequent closure of detention centers. Additionally, press freedom is now guaranteed. There is now space for peaceful political activity, including by all opposition parties. Freedoms of expression are now guaranteed. Multi-party democracy is being nurtured to ensure that Ethiopia’s next general election will be free and fair. While the returns of these investments, as Abiy has cautioned, will only be evident in the future, Ethiopia is at a critical crossroad. Abiy’s key challenge is to keep Ethiopia united while managing both Ethiopia’s ethno-federalism system, and the ethno-nationalistic aspirations of some of its citizens in peace-promoting ways.
Dangerously Sharp
These mostly politico-civil investments suggest that Abiy sees Ethiopia’s current state-civilian (or realist-liberal) divide as an impediment to the country’s development. Given his military credentials, the granting of these rights and liberties illustrates his attempts at balancing realism with liberalism on the backdrop of the rule of law. Liberating all political prisoners from the confines of detention centers, for example, shows his willingness to adjust realist tendencies to accommodate liberal ones, and to break Ethiopia away from a dark political past. A past where some individuals were held without a fair trial. Additionally, he has demonstrated his respect not only for the civil and political liberties of these individuals but also for the Geneva Convention regarding the handling – in peacetime – of individuals who were detained at a time devoid of peace. Among these freed political prisoners could be a few individuals who were jailed fairly, and who may not have completed their jail terms when the presidential pardon was granted. While the idea of not discriminating between these prisoners is laudable, those who may have suffered because of the actions of the ‘guilty’ group may consider the freeing of these individuals as an injustice. The blanket pardon may have revived two camps in the country: a pro-freedom one, and anti-freedom one.
Another double-edged sword is the guaranteeing of freedoms of expression, for and through the press, and of political ideas that contradict those of the ruling party. Depending on the prevailing circumstances, the media may come across as being pro-government, pro-opposition, or apolitical. This supposed chameleon feature could create distrust between different actors and may result in the (re)curtailing of press freedom. Furthermore, the multiplicity of voices prolongs decision making processes by complicating the determination of which voices carry the day in the event of a rift between opposing parties. This may slow down the pace of reforms in the country. This, in turn, will frustrate Ethiopians who want their country to transform into a democracy at a faster pace.
As is already evident, some of the ethnic groups that have experienced perceived or real marginalization have already begun exercising the freedom to express themselves to communicate their desire to secede from project Ethiopia. The right to secede is enshrined in the Constitution of Ethiopia. Although Abiy will be seen to be meting social justice if he grants such rights, he may inadvertently preside over the division of the federal ‘mosaic state’ into ethnic nations. If he maintains the status quo, such groups may protest, peacefully or otherwise. Violence will likely tip the realism-liberal balance in favor of realism. Ethiopia has a large pool of well-trained security officers and the state will probably use ‘hard’ power to reset the country to its preferred peace mode. Some rights will most likely be trampled on in the process. Without justice, peace will remain an illusion.
Then there is the issue of the 2020 general elections which Abiy has assured the world will be free and fair. The widening of the political landscape also means that the opposition will likely grow in the run-up to the poll. If Abiy succeeds in keeping Ethiopia intact, he will contend with a few realities. These include a larger, more diversified opposition on account of the widening of the political landscape and rifts between parties in the ruling coalition. Abiy is part Oromo and part Amhara, the largest and second-largest ethnic groups respectively. This dual identity presents yet another double-edged sword because, historically, the two ethnic groups have rivaled each other. If voting takes an ethnic shade, two things may happen. The Oromo nation may rally behind him, and the Amhara against him. He could still win if the Amhara do not form alliances with other ethnic groups, or if such alliances do not yield enough votes. Alternatively, the Oromo and Amhara may have embraced the peace culture by then (2020) and vote jointly for Abiy; his chance of winning will be high.
Several Expressions
That said, Ethiopia’s opposition still finds expression in both ethnic group and political party terms. Abiy may succeed with regard to the ethnic one, but any significant intra-party opposition will weaken his party, and split his votes. It is not yet clear if the qeerroo (young political activists from the Oromo community) will support the youthful PM on the basis of party affiliation, religion, or age. They may base their support on his handling of religious tensions between the majority Christian-minority Muslim groups in the wake of the recent burning of churches. Or on the extent to which Abiy’s reforms will improve their prospects. The extent to which he may accept this will be the true indicator of whether or not the poll will be free and fair. Abiy and his government must find a way to simultaneously manage Ethiopia’s ethnic diversity, divergent political views in his party, and youth unrest in ways that will propel the country into a more peaceful future.
Given Abiy’s service in Ethiopia’s military, these investments in politico-civil rights and liberties illustrate Abiy’s attempts at balancing of realism with liberalism on the backdrop of the rule of law. By liberating all political prisoners from the confines of detention centers, for example, Abiy has shown his willingness to adjust realist tendencies to accommodate liberal ones. Additionally, he has demonstrated his respect not only for the civil and political liberties of these individuals, but also for the Geneva Convention regarding the handling of individuals detained at a time devoid of peace in peacetime. Ethiopia is not exceptional in offering conditional guarantees as these are a common feature of the political landscape of many transitional democracies. This realism-liberal balance will likely be tipped in favor of realism if, for instance, activities of parties in the opposition become violent. Or if the freed political prisoners begin to act in ways that may endanger the peace of the nation state. Ethiopia has a large pool of well-trained security officers and the state will not tolerate violent political activity, and probably use ‘hard’ power to reset the country to its preferred peace mode.
Whether Abiy decides to seek justice to achieve peace, or to foster peace for justice, he should prioritize and support the establishment of a nationwide truth and reconciliation forum. This will allow Ethiopians to discuss and resolve any outstanding issues that have arisen from both their shared history, and the political prisoners’ release to ensure the peace and security of Ethiopia in the future. Such a forum would also be apt for discussions on peaceful co-existence regardless of affiliations of age, ethnic group, religion, or political party – the very factors that threaten to tear Ethiopia’s social fabric.
Roselyne Omondi is the Associate Director, Research, at the HORN Institute
Photo: Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center) during the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony at in Oslo in 2019 (Photo Credit: Fredrik Varfjell/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images)
