Background

It is now coming to a year since the armed conflict between two military factions in Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out. Approximately 13,900 people have been killed and according to the UNHCR, 6.5 million Sudanese have been displaced internally and 1.7 million across neighbouring countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan. This is on top of 2 million more Sudanese that were previously displaced by, among other factors, droughts and hunger. Active hostilities are hampering humanitarian access and assistance leaving 24.8 million people in need of humanitarian assistance and 14.7 million in need of targeted assistance. As the conflict stretches to a year, all indications point to a protracted armed conflict with no viable peace settlement in sight.

Various actors have attempted mediation to end the conflict through different peace processes including: (i) Jeddah Talk brokered by the United States (US), Saudi Arabia and by extension Egypt and UAE, (ii) Inter-governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) Quartet (iii) the African Union (AU) Expanded Mediation Mechanism, (iv) the Troika, and (v) neighbouring countries (Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia). However, all peace processes are faltering with ceasefire agreements having collapsed 17 times and no meaningful progress in peace talks. Principally, the peace processes inherently suffer: (i) the lack of adequate leverage on conflict actors, (ii) a fragmented approach characterized by a multiplicity of actors, interests, and processes, (iii) weak legitimacy and credibility, and (iv) the exclusive, narrow, and top-down approaches focussed on the military elites.

Whereas the military objectives of the conflict cannot be ignored, the resolution of this conflict requires a political solution. Similarly, restructuring Sudan into a functional, democratic state will require civilian-led negotiations including the resettlement of all displaced persons as opposed to when the military actors hog the peace processes. In this light, the HORN Institute, in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) Regional Programme Security Dialogue for East Africa, propose a regional symposium to envision non-military solutions to the conflict and imagine a sustainable path forward for lasting peace, state reconstruction, and preventing long term displacement.