This edition of the HORN Bulletin presents four incisive articles that unpack conflict dynamics, governance failures, corruption networks, and climate-related insecurities shaping the Horn of Africa. The first article, “Assessment of the Structured Roles Played by IGAD in the Conflict Management of South Sudan,” offers a comprehensive evaluation of IGAD’s mediation architecture in one of Africa’s most protracted civil conflicts. Tracing the historical roots of South Sudan’s instability, including weak governance, ethnic militarisation, illicit arms proliferation, and economic dependency, the paper analyses IGAD’s interventions from the 2013 crisis to the IGAD-PLUS initiative. It highlights achievements such as ceasefire monitoring, shuttle diplomacy, and support to transitional structures, while also identifying constraints including member-state rivalries, external interference, limited financial capacity, and weak enforcement mechanisms. The article concludes that for IGAD to remain an effective conflict manager, deeper political cohesion, stronger institutional mandates, and sustainable resourcing are essential.
The second article, “South Sudan: The Cowboy Hat and the Burden of a Wounded Nation,” presents a political and socio-psychological portrait of South Sudan’s post-independence struggle through the lens of leadership symbolism and the lived experiences of its citizens. It interrogates how personal rule, militarised politics, and elite fragmentation continue to obstruct reconciliation and national healing. The article situates President Salva Kiir’s leadership style within a broader culture of militarised authority and explores how this shapes state-society relations, governance breakdown, and cycles of violence. Through narrative analysis, it underscores that durable peace requires leadership renewal, inclusive state-building, and the reconstitution of civic trust.
The third article, “Corruption, an Ignored Threat to Security in the Horn of Africa,” examines corruption as a strategic security challenge rather than merely a governance defect. The paper details how bribery, rent-seeking, illicit financial flows, and patronage networks weaken state institutions, undermine service delivery, fuel public grievances, and entrench criminal economies. By linking corruption to insecurity, from border instability to extremist financing, it demonstrates that anti-corruption reforms are indispensable to national resilience. It calls for stronger regulatory mechanisms, judicial independence, transparent procurement systems, and coordinated regional action to cut off corruption pipelines.
The fourth article, “Climate, Conflict and Displacement in the Turkana–Omo Basin: Risks and Pathways to Resilience,” examines the intricate relationships between environmental stress, resource scarcity, and intercommunal conflict. Drawing on the climate-fragility lens, the paper shows how drought cycles, shrinking grazing lands, irregular rainfall, and competition over water in the Omo–Turkana ecosystem intensify pastoral conflict, displacement, and cross-border tensions. It highlights how climate change is amplifying long-standing vulnerabilities while overwhelming traditional conflict-management systems. The article proposes adaptive pathways including cross-border resource-sharing frameworks, investment in climate-smart livelihoods, early-warning systems, and community-centred resilience strategies.
