The United Nations Security Council set the full exit date for AMISOM to December 2021. While previous mandate renewals were determined by prevailing political and security situations in Somalia, UNSC Resolution 2372 (2017) enabled AMISOM to begin drawn-down by 1000 uniformed personnel in 2017. The following year, the 2018-2021 Somali Transition Plan and the AMISOM Concept of Operations (CONOPS) were developed to provide clear operational roadmap and benchmarks for a complete, stable and conditions-based exit by 2021. However, as AMISOM’s 14-year presence in Somalia draws to a close in December 2021 and despite significant gains made, Somalia is currently locked in a damaging pre-election crisis, destabilizing center-periphery frictions between federal and regional governments, worrying al Shabab resilience, and risky geopolitical forces reinforced by weak governing institutions and lack of unity. The Somali security sector is reportedly ill-structured, under-trained, ill-equipped, and under-motivated to handle the transition. Risks to gains made are real and thus the elements of time, capacity, preparedness, strategy and sustainability are critical in planning the imminent AMISOM exit, for a future secure, stable and prosperous Somalia and region.

Against the background of AMISOM’s mandate, performance, structure and operational frameworks, and in view of the current (geo)political and security situations in Somalia, the HORN Institute will hold an Experts’ Roundtable Forum to put the 2021 AMISOM withdrawal into perspective, including the potential regional and international implications.

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