Executive Summary
This edition of the HORN Bulletin presents four critical analyses on security, geopolitics, and governance affecting the Horn of Africa and beyond. The first article, “The Impact of President Trump Decisions on Developing Countries,” examines how the return of Donald Trump to office and his policy reversals such as funding freezes and withdrawal from international agreements have severely disrupted healthcare, climate initiatives, and economic stability in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It highlights increased vulnerabilities, from stalled HIV/AIDS programs to weakened multilateral trade institutions.
The second article, “Foreign Influence in Somalia: The Strategic Role of Turkey and the Gulf States,” analyzes the intensifying geopolitical competition in Somalia between Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. It assesses how these external actors leverage economic investments, military cooperation, and political patronage, thereby complicating Somalia’s internal politics and impacting its sovereignty and regional stability.
The third article, “Eritrea and Ethiopia at a Crossroads: Rethinking Eritrea’s Foreign Policy,” explores Eritrea’s evolving diplomatic stance amid Ethiopia’s internal instability following the Tigray War. The analysis evaluates historical and contemporary scenarios, weighing the strategic benefits and risks of Ethiopia’s potential disintegration or restructuring, emphasizing Eritrea’s need for proactive diplomatic engagement to safeguard regional peace and its own national security.
The fourth article, “Paradigm Shifts in the Western World and Their Implications for the Horn of Africa,” discusses the consequences of declining Western dominance and the rise of multipolarity for the Horn of Africa. It examines how shifts toward economic nationalism, reduced Western aid, and increased Chinese and Russian presence challenge regional stability, urging Horn of Africa states to strategically realign, enhance self-reliance, and foster regional integration to prevent exploitation and preserve sovereignty.
